Erdogan

The Battle of Heart and Fist: Who is Winning the Turkey Elections?

The Battle of Heart and Fist: Who is Winning the Turkey Elections?

Despite finishing ahead, President Erdogan faced the greatest electoral challenge of his political career on 14 May and conceded to a runoff for the first time in Turkish history. Although his chances looked brighter than the opposition’s Kilicdaroglu before the second round on 28 May, both contenders appear to be limited by the uncontested winner in Turkey’s elections: ultranationalism. Will Kilicdaroglu’s change of heart be enough to turn the tide? Or will Erdogan’s newfound allies carry him to a second-round victory and extend his rule into a quarter century?

The Vicious Cycle Bites Erdogan as Turkey Takes a Step Closer to Elections

The Vicious Cycle Bites Erdogan as Turkey Takes a Step Closer to Elections

In the aftermath of another exchange rate shock which saw lira took a nosedive following the central bank’s interest rates cut, Ankara is a melting pot. The opposition leaders are confident enough to renew calls for early elections, the country’s leading economists are united in their criticisms, the usually timid business people are increasingly expressive, while Erdogan’s ministers, social media trolls and his enigmatic ruling partner are equally silent. While all the signs of early elections are present, how long can the regime hold its ground? And where and how far can Erdogan go in his measures?

The Coronapolitics Report

The Coronapolitics Report

The Coronapolitics Report is RDM Advisory’s special publication looking at the coronavirus pandemic from a political risk angle. The major developments in Europe, the Middle East and Asia are covered alongside commentary through themes of “Authoritarianism and Civil Unrest”, “Alliances and Diplomacy”, “War and Terrorism” and “Protectionism.”

Turkey's Disastrous Month in Syria

Turkey's Disastrous Month in Syria

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has found himself increasingly cornered in Northern Syria, as more than 30 Turkish soldiers were killed in a possible Russian strike in Idlib’s south – the greatest single loss Turkey suffered in Syria.

The attack has followed several others in February which brought the Turkish death toll to over 50 in the space of one month, increasing the risk of a greater escalation between Turkey and Russia-backed Syria, paving the way for a humanitarian disaster and creating the yet biggest furore among the Turkish public.

What went wrong for Turkey? What are Erdogan’s options on the table? Will the ‘refugee card’ help bring back Western support? Will Russia escalate? Will censorship work to contain Turkish public reaction, this time?

A Dangerous Escalation: Turkey at Loggerheads with Syria and Russia in Idlib

A Dangerous Escalation: Turkey at Loggerheads with Syria and Russia in Idlib

Turkey announced on Monday (10 February) that 5 Turkish soldiers were killed in Idlib, due to shelling by the Syrian forces, increasing the number of Turkish deaths in Syria to 13 in one week, marking a serious escalation in the conflict and bringing the two adversaries closer to war. The analysis marks the military, diplomatic and humanitarian aspects of the incident and argues that it portrays Turkey’s vulnerability in the Northwest Syria.

LOOKING FOR PEACE "IN FEZZAN?"* THE LIBYAN CRISIS AND THE BERLIN SUMMIT

LOOKING FOR PEACE "IN FEZZAN?"* THE LIBYAN CRISIS AND THE BERLIN SUMMIT

As the Libyan conflict escalated with Turkey’s recent involvement, the Berlin Summit (19 January) was a hopeful and unusual first step since 2018, to resolve the Libyan conflict, which brought all the stakeholders together but left many questions unanswered.

Will the Libyan rebel commander Haftar break the truce? Will the Erdogan government put Turkish boots on the ground on behalf of the Tripoli government? Will the conflict escalate further? Can Russia and Turkey repeat the Syria ceasefires in Libya? Where do the US and major European powers stand in the conflict?

US-TURKEY DEAL IN NORTHEAST SYRIA: A LONG-SOUGHT WIN FOR ERDOGAN? NOT YET.

US-TURKEY DEAL IN NORTHEAST SYRIA: A LONG-SOUGHT WIN FOR ERDOGAN? NOT YET.

A week into Turkey’s offensive in Northern Syria against the Syrian Kurdish militants, US and Turkey reached an agreement in Ankara, which the US side calls a ceasefire and the Turks call a pause. While bringing a temporary relief in the conflict, the agreement falls short of delivering any long-term solutions. The agreement might seem a win for Ankara but the new realities on the ground, a week into the conflict, seem harder to establish a border-long safe zone – which is Turkey’s end goal. This is certainly not a long-sought win for Turkey’s Erdogan. At least not yet.

ERDOGAN'S AKP IN SURVIVAL MODE, BUT CAN THEY MAKE IT?

ERDOGAN'S AKP IN SURVIVAL MODE, BUT CAN THEY MAKE IT?

Following the defeat of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s AKP in big cities including the capital Ankara and megalopolis Istanbul in the local elections in March and June 2019, many expected change in the AKP leadership and some relaxation in the tightly-centralized new executive presidential system. Six months after the elections, it is the opposite.