military

Turkey's Disastrous Month in Syria

Turkey's Disastrous Month in Syria

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has found himself increasingly cornered in Northern Syria, as more than 30 Turkish soldiers were killed in a possible Russian strike in Idlib’s south – the greatest single loss Turkey suffered in Syria.

The attack has followed several others in February which brought the Turkish death toll to over 50 in the space of one month, increasing the risk of a greater escalation between Turkey and Russia-backed Syria, paving the way for a humanitarian disaster and creating the yet biggest furore among the Turkish public.

What went wrong for Turkey? What are Erdogan’s options on the table? Will the ‘refugee card’ help bring back Western support? Will Russia escalate? Will censorship work to contain Turkish public reaction, this time?

A Dangerous Escalation: Turkey at Loggerheads with Syria and Russia in Idlib

A Dangerous Escalation: Turkey at Loggerheads with Syria and Russia in Idlib

Turkey announced on Monday (10 February) that 5 Turkish soldiers were killed in Idlib, due to shelling by the Syrian forces, increasing the number of Turkish deaths in Syria to 13 in one week, marking a serious escalation in the conflict and bringing the two adversaries closer to war. The analysis marks the military, diplomatic and humanitarian aspects of the incident and argues that it portrays Turkey’s vulnerability in the Northwest Syria.

"SLAP IN THE FACE"? A SAGA IN TESTING IRAN’S LIMITS: THE CASE OF SOLEIMANI

"SLAP IN THE FACE"? A SAGA IN TESTING IRAN’S LIMITS: THE CASE OF SOLEIMANI

Struck Iran’s beloved commander, received mild retaliation, put additional sanctions. US President Donald Trump tested Iran’s limits and seems to have won this round, but the battle is far from over. Why was the Iranian retaliation moderate? What was the symbolism behind? What does the Iranian public think? What is next for Iran and US in the region?

"GOOD NEWS FROM TURKEY"? ERDOGAN-TRUMP BOND TESTED ON SYRIA

"GOOD NEWS FROM TURKEY"? ERDOGAN-TRUMP BOND TESTED ON SYRIA

A month into the Turkish incursion in Northern Syria, the dust is far from settling, with all the major actors increasing presence in the area. This picture complicates Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s visit to the White House on 13 November.

Despite the early victory lap, Mr. Erdogan has every reason to be upset for the new reality in Syria he has initiated but seems to have no control over. Neither the US-Turkey ceasefire deal in the immediate operation area, nor the following Turkey-Russia memorandum for a greater safe zone have produced any stability in the region, let alone realizing Turkey’s wishes.

Mr. Erdogan is in Washington and has some new items in his basket to convince Mr. Trump. Will the bond between two leaders be enough to salvage what is left of Northern Syria?

US-TURKEY DEAL IN NORTHEAST SYRIA: A LONG-SOUGHT WIN FOR ERDOGAN? NOT YET.

US-TURKEY DEAL IN NORTHEAST SYRIA: A LONG-SOUGHT WIN FOR ERDOGAN? NOT YET.

A week into Turkey’s offensive in Northern Syria against the Syrian Kurdish militants, US and Turkey reached an agreement in Ankara, which the US side calls a ceasefire and the Turks call a pause. While bringing a temporary relief in the conflict, the agreement falls short of delivering any long-term solutions. The agreement might seem a win for Ankara but the new realities on the ground, a week into the conflict, seem harder to establish a border-long safe zone – which is Turkey’s end goal. This is certainly not a long-sought win for Turkey’s Erdogan. At least not yet.