In a nail-biting finish on Monday, Turkey’s opposition has averted its first and most critical hurdle, as they agreed to back CHP’s Kemal Kilicdaroglu as their joint presidential candidate and continued to pose a united front against Erdogan. This brief analysis gives insight into the 72-hour saga, explains the compromises and their limitations within the opposition and speaks of Erdogan’s possible courses of action against this unity, as Turkey enters its last ten weeks before its most crucial elections.
“Good” Riddance? The Opposition Splits Ahead of Critical Elections
The second largest party’s surprise pull-out from Turkey’s opposition alliance on Friday sent shock waves across the political spectrum. The move, which came only ten weeks before the country’s vital presidential elections, split the much-needed unity among the opposition to replace an increasingly vulnerable but still combatant Erdogan. The questions are: How did the opposition get here? Can they weather the storm or have they already lost the fight? And what is next in Erdogan’s playbook? Plates are shifting in Turkish politics once again, at an unprecedented speed.
The Pelican Pause: Son-in-Law’s Exit Ushers New Era for Turkey?
The tumultuous resignation of Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan’s son-in-law as Finance Minister, was a milestone in Erdogan’s 18-year rule of the country, as it exposed political rifts at the highest -the family- level, for the first time. Despite the resignation saga which has thrown the Erdogan regime off balance, the economy, seems to have slightly picked up steam, following the President’s messages of financial orthodoxy and judicial reform. Does Erdogan’s replacement of his son-in-law usher a new era for Turkey? Is the country heading back to reforms and democracy? The short answer is no, and here is why.
"SLAP IN THE FACE"? A SAGA IN TESTING IRAN’S LIMITS: THE CASE OF SOLEIMANI
Struck Iran’s beloved commander, received mild retaliation, put additional sanctions. US President Donald Trump tested Iran’s limits and seems to have won this round, but the battle is far from over. Why was the Iranian retaliation moderate? What was the symbolism behind? What does the Iranian public think? What is next for Iran and US in the region?
"GOOD NEWS FROM TURKEY"? ERDOGAN-TRUMP BOND TESTED ON SYRIA
A month into the Turkish incursion in Northern Syria, the dust is far from settling, with all the major actors increasing presence in the area. This picture complicates Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s visit to the White House on 13 November.
Despite the early victory lap, Mr. Erdogan has every reason to be upset for the new reality in Syria he has initiated but seems to have no control over. Neither the US-Turkey ceasefire deal in the immediate operation area, nor the following Turkey-Russia memorandum for a greater safe zone have produced any stability in the region, let alone realizing Turkey’s wishes.
Mr. Erdogan is in Washington and has some new items in his basket to convince Mr. Trump. Will the bond between two leaders be enough to salvage what is left of Northern Syria?
ERDOGAN'S AKP IN SURVIVAL MODE, BUT CAN THEY MAKE IT?
Following the defeat of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s AKP in big cities including the capital Ankara and megalopolis Istanbul in the local elections in March and June 2019, many expected change in the AKP leadership and some relaxation in the tightly-centralized new executive presidential system. Six months after the elections, it is the opposite.