RDM Staff, 07.03.23
In a nail-biting finish on Monday, Turkey’s opposition has averted its first and most critical hurdle, as they agreed to back CHP’s Kemal Kilicdaroglu as their joint presidential candidate and continued to pose a united front against Erdogan.
Following a last-minute effort on Monday in a 72-hour drama, the second-largest opposition party IYI Party made a U-turn, reversing their withdrawal from the bloc on Friday over disagreement on Kilicdaroglu. The compromise came after including the popular CHP mayors of Istanbul and Ankara, favoured by the IYI Party, on the ticket.
Despite looking displeased at the announcement in Saadet Party HQ in Ankara on late Monday, IYI Party leader Meral Aksener saved face by bringing the two mayors as vice presidential candidates and averted political irrelevance in the face of her exit from the anti-Erdogan alliance. Kilicdaroglu on the other hand, reaped his efforts of leading and uniting the opposition since the local election victories in 2019. He will also now have his campaign boosted by the two popular mayors on his side while continuing to count on the IYI party votes. The crisis quickly shifted from a Lose-Lose situation on Friday to a Win-Win on Monday. This was a close miss.
Why did IYI Party make a U-Turn?
After receiving voter backlash following her decision, Aksener realized that this was an act of political suicide: As anti-Erdoganism has been a core value of the IYI constituency, Aksener realized that she and her party were at risk of being marginalized as they would lose votes to the joint opposition candidate. Further, there was the risk of Erdogan alliance biting into IYI votes, considering the nationalist nature of their electorate. IYI came close to shifting from a kingmaker party to a marginal one.
Equally, the CHP leader and now the joint candidate Kilicdaroglu realized that despite the rosy picture he drew of enlarging the opposition alliance without IYI, the numbers were just not there for a first-round victory. So despite not being in full favour, he agreed for Imamoglu and Yavas to be on the ticket, alongside the five party leaders.
What now for the opposition alliance?
The current framework provides a workable solution: Aksener is content that, despite the limitations in wording on the roadmap, she has got Imamoglu and Yavas, her preferred candidates, both on the ticket. And Kilicdaroglu, despite his initial hesitations over the two mayors as possible threats to his candidacy, now formally has them on his side and also retains the support of IYI. So in a way, the alliance has emerged stronger from this crisis and with the implicit backing of the pro-Kurdish HDP they have a shot at winning in the first round of voting. But it is a long way from a smooth ride.
This crisis will continue to reflect poorly on CHP-IYI relations. The broken trust, the tit-for-tat and Aksener’s rebellion calls to the mayors will continue to haunt the relationship in the upcoming disagreements. The fact that the joint roadmap has conditions for the vice presidency of the two mayors, in terms of appointment time and role, stands as a hurdle. The wording is miles away from the certainty and the “executive” nature of the vice presidents, which brought IYI back to the table. Perhaps, Aksener’s body language at the announcement reflected that discontent.
But we think both sides will draw important lessons from this short-lived split which could have cost them the elections at such an early stage. What is ultimately important is that they continue to remain united against Erdogan.
What next for Erdogan?
Meanwhile, President Erdogan’s political machinery has appeared to be in a state of panic. One presidential adviser has scrambled to scrap the notion that Imamoglu and Yavas could be vice presidents, while keeping their roles as mayors. Another questioned the limits of authority which can be delegated to vice presidents. Aksener’s comeback to the opposition alliance with the two mayors who beat Erdogan’s candidates in 2019 on board was not something in Erdogan’s playbook. There is however enough tension there to incite a further crisis within the opposition and Erdogan will certainly have a go at that. Thanks to this saga, he will also have a day at the park bashing the crisis-prone nature of the multi-party coalitions. But the fact that the opposition was able to turn the crisis around in a short time will not help him.
White smoke has finally emerged in Ankara. The battered opposition has remained united under Kilicdaroglu. They now have a final hurdle to overcome and have their eyes fixed on Erdogan.