Despite finishing ahead, President Erdogan faced the greatest electoral challenge of his political career on 14 May and conceded to a runoff for the first time in Turkish history. Although his chances looked brighter than the opposition’s Kilicdaroglu before the second round on 28 May, both contenders appear to be limited by the uncontested winner in Turkey’s elections: ultranationalism. Will Kilicdaroglu’s change of heart be enough to turn the tide? Or will Erdogan’s newfound allies carry him to a second-round victory and extend his rule into a quarter century?
Opposition Reunited under Kilicdaroglu Readies to Take On Erdogan
In a nail-biting finish on Monday, Turkey’s opposition has averted its first and most critical hurdle, as they agreed to back CHP’s Kemal Kilicdaroglu as their joint presidential candidate and continued to pose a united front against Erdogan. This brief analysis gives insight into the 72-hour saga, explains the compromises and their limitations within the opposition and speaks of Erdogan’s possible courses of action against this unity, as Turkey enters its last ten weeks before its most crucial elections.
“Good” Riddance? The Opposition Splits Ahead of Critical Elections
The second largest party’s surprise pull-out from Turkey’s opposition alliance on Friday sent shock waves across the political spectrum. The move, which came only ten weeks before the country’s vital presidential elections, split the much-needed unity among the opposition to replace an increasingly vulnerable but still combatant Erdogan. The questions are: How did the opposition get here? Can they weather the storm or have they already lost the fight? And what is next in Erdogan’s playbook? Plates are shifting in Turkish politics once again, at an unprecedented speed.
The Vicious Cycle Bites Erdogan as Turkey Takes a Step Closer to Elections
In the aftermath of another exchange rate shock which saw lira took a nosedive following the central bank’s interest rates cut, Ankara is a melting pot. The opposition leaders are confident enough to renew calls for early elections, the country’s leading economists are united in their criticisms, the usually timid business people are increasingly expressive, while Erdogan’s ministers, social media trolls and his enigmatic ruling partner are equally silent. While all the signs of early elections are present, how long can the regime hold its ground? And where and how far can Erdogan go in his measures?
ERDOGAN'S AKP IN SURVIVAL MODE, BUT CAN THEY MAKE IT?
Following the defeat of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s AKP in big cities including the capital Ankara and megalopolis Istanbul in the local elections in March and June 2019, many expected change in the AKP leadership and some relaxation in the tightly-centralized new executive presidential system. Six months after the elections, it is the opposite.