A week into Turkey’s offensive in Northern Syria against the Syrian Kurdish militants, US and Turkey reached an agreement in Ankara, which the US side calls a ceasefire and the Turks call a pause. While bringing a temporary relief in the conflict, the agreement falls short of delivering any long-term solutions. The agreement might seem a win for Ankara but the new realities on the ground, a week into the conflict, seem harder to establish a border-long safe zone – which is Turkey’s end goal. This is certainly not a long-sought win for Turkey’s Erdogan. At least not yet.
PLANNED TURKISH OPERATION INTO NORTHERN SYRIA TESTS LIMITS
US President Donald Trump, after talks with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, decided –once again- to pull back US troops from (Northern) Syria. While the troop withdrawal is on way, Pentagon officials and some heavy-weight senators are trying to dissuade Trump, as they did and succeeded in late 2018. Will Trump make another U-turn? If not, will Russia and Iran give implicit backing to a Turkey-led operation in the east of Euphrates? Turkey is testing limits in Syria, once again.
ERDOGAN'S AKP IN SURVIVAL MODE, BUT CAN THEY MAKE IT?
Following the defeat of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s AKP in big cities including the capital Ankara and megalopolis Istanbul in the local elections in March and June 2019, many expected change in the AKP leadership and some relaxation in the tightly-centralized new executive presidential system. Six months after the elections, it is the opposite.