E. Erdem Aydin
A month into the Turkish incursion in Northern Syria, the dust is far from settling, with all the major actors increasing presence in the area. This picture complicates Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s visit to the White House on 13 November. (Edit: Post-meeting commentary below)
Despite the early victory lap, Mr. Erdogan has every reason to be upset for the new reality in Syria he has initiated but seems to have no control over.
Neither the US-Turkey ceasefire deal in the immediate operation area, nor the following Turkey-Russia memorandum for a greater safe zone have produced any stability in the region, let alone realizing Ankara’s wishes.
Despite regular joint Turkey-Russia patrols (a total of five, by the time this analysis was written), there is not much substance to the agreements.
Firstly, there is hardly any ceasefire.
On contrary to the US-Turkey deal, The Syrian Kurdish militants, the YPG/SDF, still operate and even engage with the Turkish army and Turkey-led Free Syrian Army (TFSA), especially in the south-eastern edges of the immediate ceasefire area (around Tell Tamr).
The situation is not much different on the Russian side of the deal.
YPG/SDF, to a large extent, are still in the designated safe zone, including Tel Rifaat and Manbij, under the refuge of the Syrian army - despite the contrary Russian claim.
The Syrian army (SAA) is also making headway in areas which they are excluded from in the Sochi deal, further alienating and drawing reaction from Turkey’s allies, the Free Syrian Army.
What is more is that, SDF’s commander-in-chief Mazloum Abdi whom Ankara sees as a terrorist, appears to be enjoying attention and legitimacy both in Washington and Moscow, landing calls with the US President Trump and the Russian Defence Minister.[1]
So, after a month, YPG/SDF are still out there, the Syrian government is enjoying and abusing a pretext to regain ground, Russia has increased its presence and it seems that the US troops are not leaving Northern Syria after all, and have redeployed in oil-rich areas in the north east– especially Rumeilan- in partnership with SDF. [2]
It is in this context that Mr. Erdogan is travelling to Washington to meet the US President Donald Trump. There was even speculation in his government that he may not even show up, protesting the ongoing YPG/SDF attacks.[3]
Before embarking for Washington, Erdogan said that the "terror organizations" in both US and Russia-guaranteed areas in Syria’s north still remain and he will provide evidence to Mr. Trump on "terrorist" Ferhat Abdi Şahin – a.k.a Mazloum Abdi, the SDF commander.[4]
There is no doubt that the removal of YPG/SDG from the ceasefire zone (Tel Abyad-Ras al Ain) will be Erdogan’s top priority in the meeting.
The continued US presence will, however, make that removal harder. It is clear that Erdogan is in Washington for a new deal, for which he will again make use of a mixture of threat, pressure and economic concession.
Washington’s priority in Syria, however, is the fight against the IS.
Against his odds, Mr. Erdogan has this time, the US killing of Islamic State (IS) leader Abu-Bakr al Baghdadi in late October, in a compound 5 kilometres to the Turkish border, in Turkey-friendly Idlib, the last opposition-held city in Syria.
After the killing, Erdogan disclosed that Turkey captured al-Baghdadi’s wife more than a year ago, along with several other relatives, presumably, to avoid further public embarrassment and regain leverage in IS fight.[5]
For persuasion, the Turkish President is also expected to make use of a push-factor.
Turkey has begun deporting IS detainees to European countries, just before Erdogan’s trip to Washington. According to pro-government media, the deportations will initially include 278 terrorists.[6]
It seems conspicuous that Erdogan will hold the deportations card for a new agreement with the US in Northern Syria, along with another threat of unilateral force – which seems more unlikely than a month ago, given the new realities on the ground.
Turkey’s purchase of Russian missile system S-400s is also expected to be part of the discussions, and maybe the Northern Syria bargaining. However, at this point, with the deliveries coming close to completion, it is unreasonable to await the Turkish cancellation of the deal with Russia. Yet Erdogan will push for Turkey’s re-integration into the F-35 program, from which Turkey was removed due to Russian missile purchase and will try to limit the resulting US military sanctions.
After Trump, Mr. Erdogan is expected to have a meeting with Russia’s Putin to iron out differences on Northern Syria. There is no doubt that the Turkish President will want to appear in a stronger position, so he will be expecting some tangible results from the meeting.
Erdogan’s best bet is to convince Mr. Trump that Turkey may as well guarantee the safety of oil fields in north-east Syria. Even if he succeeds, it is now evident that Pentagon will one way or another revert US troop withdrawal from Northern Syria. Secondly, he can offer to stop the IS deportations which irritate Washington and European capitals but this should not go beyond to create some limited resonance. Erdogan no longer has the unilateral show of force, the way he had a month ago, as he now has to deal with Russia and the Syrian government for the rest of the safe zone Ankara wishes to establish in Northern Syria. As for the US demands, the Turkish delegation will almost certainly reject the S-400s drop-out and a permanent ceasefire in Northeast Syria.
It is a meeting in which both sides will push for demands which they do not seem capable of enforcing. As far as ambitions are concerned in Northern Syria, it only appears as a prelude to the next Sochi event. "Good news" from D.C. this time? Unlikely. There is "From Russia with Love."
E. Erdem Aydin, RDM Advisory
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Post-meeting commentary (13.11.19)
"There were no tangible results but both leaders tried to avoid nerve endings. Turkey’s Erdogan avoided bringing violations on the US-agreed "ceasefire" in Northeast Syria whereas President Trump did not roar on the S400s. In a rare press event in the Oval Office, he even tried to bring hand-picked Republican senators on board with Erdogan. Both sides tried to project that this is a working relationship- and in a way it is. Divisions on key issues will remain but one can always delay until finding a solution. With the level of personal relationship between Trump and Erdogan, that choice seems to be always on the table."
EEA
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[1] Abdi also seems to enjoy a solid online presence, his newly acquired Twitter handle reached more than 90 thousand followers in a few weeks and obtained a blue tick.
[2] Up to 600 hundred US troops will remain in Northern Syria, according to latest statement by top US general. https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/us-will-leave-about-600-troops-in-northeast-syria-to-prevent-isis-resurgence-top-general-says/2019/11/10/5cbe9350-03d5-11ea-b17d-8b867891d39d_story.html
[3]https://www.independentturkish.com/node/88351/haber/erdo%C4%9Fan%E2%80%99%C4%B1n-abd-ziyareti-ile-ilgili-kal%C4%B1n-teredd%C3%BCtlerimiz-izole-olmazsa-ziyaret
[4] https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/turkiye/cumhurbaskani-erdogan-abd-ziyaretinde-oncelikli-konumuz-terorle-mucadele/1642360
[5] https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-mideast-crisis-baghdadi-wife/erdogan-says-turkey-has-captured-baghdadis-wife-in-syria-idUKKBN1XG1SO
[6] https://www.yenisafak.com/gundem/simdi-onlar-dusunsun-3513942