Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has found himself increasingly cornered in Northern Syria, as more than 30 Turkish soldiers were killed in a possible Russian strike in Idlib’s south – the greatest single loss Turkey suffered in Syria.

The attack has followed several others in February which brought the Turkish death toll to over 50 in the space of one month, increasing the risk of a greater escalation between Turkey and Russia-backed Syria, paving the way for a humanitarian disaster and creating the yet biggest furore among the Turkish public.

What went wrong for Turkey? What are Erdogan’s options on the table? Will the ‘refugee card’ help bring back Western support? Will Russia escalate? Will censorship work to contain Turkish public reaction, this time?