Despite finishing ahead, President Erdogan faced the greatest electoral challenge of his political career on 14 May and conceded to a runoff for the first time in Turkish history. Although his chances looked brighter than the opposition’s Kilicdaroglu before the second round on 28 May, both contenders appear to be limited by the uncontested winner in Turkey’s elections: ultranationalism. Will Kilicdaroglu’s change of heart be enough to turn the tide? Or will Erdogan’s newfound allies carry him to a second-round victory and extend his rule into a quarter century?

In a nail-biting finish on Monday, Turkey’s opposition has averted its first and most critical hurdle, as they agreed to back CHP’s Kemal Kilicdaroglu as their joint presidential candidate and continued to pose a united front against Erdogan. This brief analysis gives insight into the 72-hour saga, explains the compromises and their limitations within the opposition and speaks of Erdogan’s possible courses of action against this unity, as Turkey enters its last ten weeks before its most crucial elections.

The second largest party’s surprise pull-out from Turkey’s opposition alliance on Friday sent shock waves across the political spectrum. The move, which came only ten weeks before the country’s vital presidential elections, split the much-needed unity among the opposition to replace an increasingly vulnerable but still combatant Erdogan. The questions are: How did the opposition get here? Can they weather the storm or have they already lost the fight? And what is next in Erdogan’s playbook? Plates are shifting in Turkish politics once again, at an unprecedented speed.

In our first video collaboration with the Hollings Center for International Dialogue, we discussed Iran’s new era under a hardliner President and its implications for the region and beyond.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has found himself increasingly cornered in Northern Syria, as more than 30 Turkish soldiers were killed in a possible Russian strike in Idlib’s south – the greatest single loss Turkey suffered in Syria.

The attack has followed several others in February which brought the Turkish death toll to over 50 in the space of one month, increasing the risk of a greater escalation between Turkey and Russia-backed Syria, paving the way for a humanitarian disaster and creating the yet biggest furore among the Turkish public.

What went wrong for Turkey? What are Erdogan’s options on the table? Will the ‘refugee card’ help bring back Western support? Will Russia escalate? Will censorship work to contain Turkish public reaction, this time?

Turkey announced on Monday (10 February) that 5 Turkish soldiers were killed in Idlib, due to shelling by the Syrian forces, increasing the number of Turkish deaths in Syria to 13 in one week, marking a serious escalation in the conflict and bringing the two adversaries closer to war. The analysis marks the military, diplomatic and humanitarian aspects of the incident and argues that it portrays Turkey’s vulnerability in the Northwest Syria.